Learning from Context is Critical

"Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow's Big Changes," by Mark J. Penn, was published a couple of weeks ago…Microtrends have, once and for all, replaced macrotrends. Penn proclaims "the niching of America" -- we are not a melting pot but a nation of niches.

Accordingly, he serves up 75 microtrends, out of thousands he says he could have chosen…[That said,] Mr. Penn's trendwatching seems to lack historical perspective. For example, he celebrates the transition from a "Ford economy" to a "Starbucks" economy, from an environment in which everyone could buy a car as long as it was a black Model A to one in which we have the choice of hundreds of combinations of coffee strength, milk treatment and fat level. But he forgets that the U.S. auto industry went through its own "half-caf triple latte" period in the '50s and '60s, when consumers had a choice of thousands of combinations of colors and options -- and thereby gave an opening to Japanese auto makers, which sold a few well-equipped models at a lower price.

(Photo: By the 1950 model year's fall of '49 introduction, Ford engineers had solved most of the major problems with the cars. Before then, most cars looked alike.)

Read more.